Who Will Win? Breaking Down the 2017 NBA Finals Series Odds and Predictions

Looking back at the 2017 NBA Finals, it’s hard not to feel a sense of inevitability about how things played out. I remember sitting courtside for one of the early series games, feeling the buzz in the arena—everyone knew we were witnessing something historic in the making. Golden State and Cleveland were on a collision course for the third straight year, but this time felt different. The Warriors had added Kevin Durant to an already legendary roster, and the Cavaliers, led by LeBron James, were coming off that unforgettable 3–1 comeback the year before. The stakes couldn’t have been higher.

Before the series tipped off, most analysts and betting markets heavily favored the Warriors. I recall checking the odds—Golden State was sitting around -220 to win the series, which in layman’s terms means you’d have to bet $220 just to win $100 back. That’s a pretty strong vote of confidence. Cleveland, meanwhile, was the underdog at about +180. Personally, I thought those numbers slightly underestimated the Cavs, especially with LeBron playing at an otherworldly level during that postseason. But let’s be real: Golden State’s firepower was just absurd. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and now Durant? That’s a lineup that doesn’t come around often.

What struck me most was how both teams had evolved since their previous Finals meetings. Golden State wasn’t just looking for revenge; they were building a dynasty. And Cleveland? They had the best basketball player on the planet in LeBron, but the supporting cast had its question marks. Kyrie Irving was brilliant but inconsistent defensively, and Kevin Love, while talented, sometimes struggled against the Warriors’ small-ball lineups. I remember talking to a few scouts before Game 1, and the consensus was that if the Cavs couldn’t dominate the boards or slow down the pace, they’d be in trouble.

Game 1 was a statement. The Warriors won by 22 points, and Durant was absolutely sensational—38 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists. I’ve covered the NBA for over a decade, and I can count on one hand the number of players who’ve had a Finals debut that dominant. The Cavaliers kept it close for a half, but Golden State’s third-quarter explosion—a signature of theirs—sealed it. That’s when I started to think this might not go past five games. Still, LeBron’s 28 points, 15 rebounds, and 8 assists showed he wasn’t going down without a fight.

Then came Game 2, and honestly, it was even more lopsided. Golden State set a Finals record with 18 three-pointers, and Curry erupted for 32 points. The final margin was 132–113, but it felt like a bigger blowout. At that point, the series odds shifted even more dramatically. Some sportsbooks had the Warriors at -1000 to win the title—basically, a foregone conclusion. I’ve never been a fan of counting LeBron out, though. He’s pulled off miracles before, and heading back to Cleveland for Game 3, I expected a response. And boy, did we get one.

Game 3 was arguably the most thrilling of the series. Kyrie Irving took over down the stretch, hitting a clutch three-pointer reminiscent of his Game 7 heroics from 2016. LeBron nearly had a triple-double, and the Cavs won by five points. For a moment, it felt like the momentum might shift. But here’s the thing about that Warriors team: they never panicked. Even after a loss, they bounced back with a cool, calculated intensity. That’s what separates great teams from legendary ones.

When we look at the broader context, this series was the culmination of years of buildup. As the reference knowledge hints, "Years later, that partnership is finally a go." In many ways, Durant’s arrival in Golden State was that partnership—the perfect fusion of talent and system. It wasn’t just about stacking stars; it was about how seamlessly he fit into their motion offense and switching defense. From my perspective, that’s what made the 2017 Warriors so terrifying. They didn’t have obvious weaknesses. Even when the Cavs threw everything at them, Golden State had an answer.

Game 4 was a classic example. Back in Cleveland, the Cavs came out firing and built a decent lead early. But the Warriors chipped away, and Durant’s dagger three-pointer in the final minute—over LeBron, no less—felt like the series-ending moment. I’ll admit, I was standing up in the press section when that shot went down. It was one of those "where were you when" moments. Golden State went up 3–1, and despite Cleveland’s history with that deficit, there was no comeback this time.

Closing it out in Game 5 was almost ceremonial. The Warriors won 129–120, and Durant earned Finals MVP with averages of 35.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 5.4 assists for the series. LeBron, meanwhile, put up historic numbers himself—33.6 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 10.0 assists per game, becoming the first player to average a triple-double in the Finals. In any other year, that would’ve been enough for MVP honors. But 2017 was the Warriors’ year, plain and simple.

Reflecting on it now, the 2017 Finals weren’t just about who won or lost. They highlighted the evolution of superteams and the strategic arms race in the NBA. Golden State’s dominance raised questions about parity in the league, but it also gave us some of the most aesthetically beautiful basketball I’ve ever seen. As for predictions, if I had to do it all over again, I’d still pick the Warriors in five—maybe even four if I’m being honest. Their talent was too much, their system too refined. But LeBron and the Cavs made them earn it, and that’s what made the series unforgettable.