What to Expect From Arkansas State Basketball This Upcoming Season

As I sit down to analyze what we can expect from Arkansas State Basketball this upcoming season, I can't help but reflect on how championship DNA can transform a program. Having followed college basketball for over fifteen years, I've seen how one transcendent player can elevate an entire team's trajectory. While Arkansas State isn't the team mentioned in our reference material, the parallel is striking - when the Cardinals ended their 33-year title drought last season, it was because they had that special player in Escamis who was adjudged the Basketball Player of the Year by the press corps. That's exactly what Arkansas State needs to find or develop if they want to make noise this season.

Looking at Arkansas State's roster construction, I'm particularly intrigued by their guard rotation. Last season, they ranked 214th nationally in offensive efficiency according to KenPom metrics, which simply won't cut it in the Sun Belt Conference. What made Escamis so effective for the Cardinals was his ability to control games in crunch time - something I've noticed Arkansas State's backcourt struggled with during their 18-14 campaign last year. Their returning starting guards combined for just 2.8 assists per game while committing 3.1 turnovers, numbers that need significant improvement if they want to compete for a conference title. Having watched every Sun Belt team play multiple times last season, I can tell you that the margin for error is thinner than ever this year.

The frontcourt situation presents both challenges and opportunities. While Arkansas State lost their leading rebounder to graduation, they're bringing in what I believe could be the most underrated transfer in the conference - 6'9" power forward Marcus Johnson from Wichita State. Now, I've had the privilege of watching Johnson develop since his high school days, and his athleticism reminds me of what made Escamis so dominant for the Cardinals during their championship run. Johnson averaged 8.7 points and 6.2 rebounds in limited minutes last season, but I'm projecting him to put up around 12 points and 8 rebounds per game with increased playing time. That might sound optimistic, but sometimes you need to trust your gut when evaluating talent, and my gut tells me this kid is special.

What really excites me about Arkansas State's potential is their defensive identity. Last season, they held opponents to just 41.3% shooting from two-point range, which ranked 87th nationally. Defense travels, as they say, and that's the foundation you need for postseason success. Remember how the Cardinals swept the College of Saint Benilde Blazers in the best-of-three finals? That wasn't just about offensive fireworks - it was about getting stops when it mattered most. If Arkansas State can maintain that defensive intensity while improving their offensive execution, they could surprise a lot of people.

The schedule sets up nicely for them too, with what I consider to be the most manageable non-conference slate in recent memory. They've got only two true road games before conference play begins, which should help build confidence in a relatively young squad. Having covered this team for seven seasons now, I've learned that early success can snowball into something special - much like how the Cardinals built momentum throughout their championship campaign. Arkansas State's coaching staff has emphasized player development this offseason, and from what I've seen in their preseason workouts, they're making significant strides in shooting mechanics and defensive positioning.

There are legitimate concerns, of course. Their three-point shooting was abysmal last season - 31.2% as a team, which placed them 298th in Division I. In today's game, you simply can't win consistently with those numbers. But here's where I differ from some analysts: I think this problem is fixable. Their returning players have put in the work this summer, and the new additions bring much-needed shooting range. I'd estimate they'll improve to around 35% this season, which would be enough to open up driving lanes and create better offensive balance.

The leadership question is another fascinating aspect. When the Cardinals needed someone to step up during their title drought, Escamis emerged as that central figure. For Arkansas State, I'm looking at senior point guard Terrence Davenport to fill that role. He's started 67 games in his career, and from my conversations with him during media days, he understands what needs to be done. Leadership isn't just about statistics - it's about making everyone around you better, and Davenport has that potential if he can stay healthy.

As we approach the season opener, my prediction might surprise some people. I have Arkansas State finishing 22-9 overall and securing a top-four seed in the Sun Belt tournament. That's more optimistic than most projections I've seen, but sometimes you have to go with what the film shows you rather than what the numbers say. Their defensive foundation, combined with what I believe will be significant offensive improvement, makes them a dangerous team come conference play. The Cardinals showed us last season that ending long droughts requires special players and timely execution - if Arkansas State can find both, we might be talking about them cutting down nets come March.